Utah Work Comp Loss Costs Are Dropping 5.6% for 2027
Utah Work Comp Loss Costs Are Dropping 5.6% for 2027. Here's What Reaches Your Renewal.
Utah has approved a 5.6% statewide decrease in advisory loss costs effective February 1, 2027. Of the 546 classifications we compared, 450 came down. But two things moving the other way, and one methodology change worth understanding, decide how much of that you actually see.
NCCI filed its annual Utah workers' compensation loss cost recommendation on August 25, 2026, and it has been approved as filed: a 5.6% decrease to voluntary-market advisory loss costs effective February 1, 2027.
That is a broad decrease, not a narrow one. Across the 546 Utah classifications carrying a published loss cost in both years, 450 went down, 89 went up, and seven held flat. The typical class fell about 5.1% and the median class 5.7%.
First: Utah publishes loss costs, not rates
An advisory loss cost is only the portion of the price meant to pay claims. It carries no provision for your carrier's expenses, commissions, taxes, or profit. Your carrier applies its own filed loss cost multiplier (LCM) to arrive at a rate, so two carriers working from the identical NCCI loss cost can quote you meaningfully different numbers.
A 5.6% cut lowers the raw ingredient. What lands on your renewal depends on your carrier's LCM, your experience modification factor, your class mix, and any credits or debits on your account.
Why loss costs are falling
The filing is built on Utah premium and loss experience for policy years 2022, 2023 and 2024, valued at year-end 2025, and the experience improved relative to the data behind the February 1, 2026 filing.
Frequency keeps falling, more slowly. Utah's lost-time claim frequency decreased again in the latest policy year, continuing a long-term decline, though the rate of decline has moderated.
Indemnity costs are flat, medical costs are falling. Average indemnity claim costs have held steady and continue to track wage growth, so NCCI proposed a higher indemnity trend factor. Average medical claim costs continue to decrease, and no change was made to the medical trend factor.
A methodology change sits underneath this filing. Utah's loss projections used to rely on paid loss data alone. After a period of volatility, NCCI began blending in paid plus case losses (paid losses plus outstanding case reserves), giving them 25% weight last year. This filing moves to an equal 50/50 weighting. That is a change in how the answer is calculated, not just a change in the answer, and it is worth knowing when you compare this filing to older ones.
The decrease is not spread evenly
Industry group | Classes | Average change |
|---|---|---|
Office & Clerical | 26 | −9.07% |
Federal (F) classifications | 14 | −7.71% |
Contracting | 76 | −6.86% |
Miscellaneous | 91 | −5.08% |
Goods & Services | 103 | −4.60% |
Manufacturing | 232 | −4.19% |
Unweighted average of the class-level changes in each group, computed by Mod Advisor from NCCI classification assignments. NCCI does not publish a group breakdown with this filing.
Office and clerical classes come out best by a wide margin, at more than double the relief manufacturers get. Contractors also do well. Every group is down, so this is a decrease that reaches the whole state, but a Utah clerical employer and a Utah manufacturer are looking at meaningfully different years.
Where everyday Utah employers land
Code | Classification | 2-1-2026 | 2-1-2027 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
8742 | Salespersons or collectors: outside | 0.095 | 0.079 | −16.84% |
5403 | Carpentry NOC | 2.040 | 1.788 | −12.35% |
5645 | Carpentry: residential dwellings | 4.669 | 4.228 | −9.45% |
7219 | Trucking NOC | 2.541 | 2.313 | −8.97% |
8810 | Clerical office employees NOC | 0.036 | 0.033 | −8.33% |
5183 | Plumbing NOC | 0.939 | 0.863 | −8.09% |
8017 | Store: retail NOC | 0.462 | 0.427 | −7.58% |
8006 | Store: convenience, retail | 0.497 | 0.472 | −5.03% |
9014 | Janitorial services by contractors | 0.904 | 0.870 | −3.76% |
9082 | Restaurant NOC | 0.411 | 0.400 | −2.68% |
8868 | School: professional employees | 0.109 | 0.111 | +1.83% |
The extremes at either end are mostly waterfront and aviation classes priced off national rather than Utah experience: Code 7402 (air traffic control) falls 32.0%, while Codes 8709F and 6826F rise about 25%. Those swings say little about the Utah economy.
The changes that are not in the loss cost table
Several Utah advisory values move on February 1, and they run against the decrease:
Owner payroll goes up. The maximum weekly payroll for executive officers, and for athletic sports under Codes 9178 and 9179, rises from $5,200 to $5,500. The weekly minimum rises from $1,300 to $1,400, and the annual payroll basis for partners and sole proprietors from $67,900 to $71,600, a 5.4% increase.
If you have owners on the policy, the rate went down but the payroll it applies to went up. That can quietly cancel a chunk of the 5.6%.
A few others worth knowing:
Deductible credits get smaller. The advisory loss elimination ratios tick down at every deductible in every hazard group. A $2,500 deductible in hazard group A moves from 25.3% to 24.9%.
The taxicab basis of premium (Code 7370) rises to $107,300 for employee-operated vehicles and $71,600 for leased or rented vehicles.
The USL&HW coverage percentage moves from 81% to 83%, with the non-F adjustment factor going from 1.81 to 1.83.
Coal mine disease elements rise: Code 1005 from $0.472 to $0.499, and Code 1016 from $1.418 to $1.497.
Advisory terrorism (0.005) and catastrophe (0.010) loss costs are unchanged.
What this means for you
A 5.6% statewide decrease is a tailwind, not a guarantee. Three things the filing does not touch will decide your February renewal:
Your carrier's loss cost multiplier. Carriers file their own LCMs and can revise them. A carrier raising its multiplier can absorb the entire decrease before you see it.
Your experience modification factor. A mod moving from 0.95 to 1.10 swamps a 5% loss cost cut.
Your class mix. Office and clerical exposure is getting roughly twice the relief manufacturing exposure gets.
Before your February renewal, it is worth confirming your class codes are correct, checking how the new loss costs land on your specific classes rather than on the state as a whole, comparing your carrier's LCM against the market, and understanding what is driving your mod. Mod Advisor carries the full class-by-class comparison for all 546 Utah codes: the 2-1-2026 loss cost, the 2-1-2027 loss cost, and the exact percentage change, alongside your own classifications and mod.
Contains NCCI copyrighted information. Advisory loss costs cover losses only and exclude all carrier expense provisions; they do not by themselves determine final premium. Class-level and industry-group averages computed by Mod Advisor. Prepared by Mod Advisor.